Working Paper
Ideas and Firm Dynamics When It Takes Two to Tango
WP 26-44 – Teams of inventors now produce over 80 percent of U.S. patents, up from just 45 percent in 1976. Over the same period, inventor employment has become increasingly concentrated in large firms, rising six times more than overall employment concentration.
Featured Work
Working Paper
Spreading Out Across Expanding Idea Space
WP 26-39 – Over nearly two centuries, U.S. inventions have become increasingly dissimilar: not just fewer head-to-head collisions between inventors, but growing distance between neighboring inventions.
Working Paper
Testing for Endogeneity: A Moment-Based Bayesian Approach
WP 24-19/R – A standard assumption in the Bayesian estimation of linear regression models is that the regressors are exogenous in the sense that they are uncorrelated with the model error term. In practice, however, this assumption can be invalid.
Working Paper
Inference Based on Scale, Label, and Economic Restrictions
WP 26-36 – The results of nearly 100 prominent studies in empirical macroeconomics have been called into question by Baumeister and Hamilton (2018).
Featured Data
Livingston Survey
The oldest continuous survey of economists' expectations that summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia
Updated: 24 Jun ’26
Survey of Professional Forecasters
The oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States
Updated: 14 Aug ’26
Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index
An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency
Updated: 02 Oct ’26
Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists
The real-time data set consists of vintages, or snapshots, of time series of major macroeconomic variables. The data set may be used by macroeconomic researchers to verify empirical results, to analyze policy, or to forecast. All data are updated at the end of each month.
Updated: 02 Oct ’26
GDPplus
Measure of the quarter-over-quarter rate of growth of real output in continuously compounded annualized percentage points
Updated: 30 Sep ’26
Aruoba Term Structure of Inflation Expectations
A continuous curve of inflation expectations three to 120 months ahead, analogous to a yield curve
Updated: 25 Sep ’26