The Economy

We produce and compile research and data on the overall economy, banking and financial markets. Our goal is to help financial institutions operate in a safe manner and support a robust U.S. financial system.

Close-up of Benjamin Franklin's portrait on the hundred-dollar bill

Measuring Climate Transition Risk at the Regional Level with an Application to Community Banks

WP 25-11 – We base our measure of U.S. climate transition risk on an estimate of an emissions tax’s effect on firm value, aggregated to the region. The size and geographic concentration of the effect depend on the tax’s pass-through to prices.

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

Mortgage-Backed Securities

WP 25-10 – This paper provides a review of the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market, the ultimate source of financing for most housing purchases in the United States, and one of the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world.

Sequential Search for Corporate Bonds

WP 25-08 – We study the magnitude and sources of trading delays in over-the-counter financial markets using a new data set that contains a complete record of all inquiries — successful and not — made on the leading electronic platform for corporate bonds.

Event

Apr

10-11

2025

2025 Fintech and Financial Institutions Research Conference

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay Employer-to-Employer Transition Probability

Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay Employer-to-Employer Transition Probability tracks the rate at which U.S. workers transition from one employer to another in a given month.

Regional Economics

Working Paper

The Value of Piped Water and Sewers: Evidence from 19th Century Chicago

WP 25-07 – The value of land doubled when sewer and water lines were installed in 19th century Chicago. The aggregate increase in land values exceeded the cost of installing sewer and water by a factor of 60.