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Economic Insights features nontechnical articles on monetary policy, banking, and national, regional, and international economics, all written for a wide audience.



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Why Are Recessions So Hard to Predict? Random Shocks and Business Cycles PDF
Economists aren't soothsayers. They can't pinpoint the start of the next recession. But as Thorsten Drautzburg explains, their models can at least help us understand why a recession is happening, and what can be done about it.

Banking Trends: Estimating Today's Commercial Real Estate Risk PDF
Pablo D'Erasmo traces the link between exposure to commercial real estate loans and bank failure, and estimates how much more capital banks would need to withstand a plunge in prices like in the financial crisis.

Research Update PDF
Abstracts of the latest working papers produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.



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Exploring the Economic Effects of the Opioid Epidemic PDF
Adam Scavette examines how the opioid crisis affects the labor market, and why it's been particular hard on the Third District.

Regional Spotlight: Smart Growth for Regions of All Sizes PDF
To build a healthy economy, a region must grow—or so says the conventional wisdom. Paul R. Flora examines the data and finds that growth isn't always the best way forward.

Implementing Monetary Policy in a Changing Federal Funds Market PDF
Benjamin Lester explores how the Fed set interest rates before, during, and after the Great Recession, and how the distribution of reserves might help it understand when those reserves are no longer 'ample.'

Research Update PDF
Abstracts of the latest working papers produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.



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Banking Trends: How Foreign Banks Changed After Dodd–Frank PDF Addendum PDF
One big legacy of the Great Recession was the Wall Street Reform Act, but this act affected not only domestic banks. James DiSalvo examines how Dodd–Frank also changed the way foreign banks operate in the U.S.

Collateral Damage: House Prices and Consumption During the Great Recession PDF
In 2007–2008, house prices and household consumption both cratered simultaneously. A coincidence? Likely not. Ronel Elul explores the connection between house prices and economic cycles.

Where Is the Phillips Curve? PDF
Shigeru Fujita explores what's happening to the Phillips curve in our low-unemployment, low-inflation economy. Is the curve dead? Or just harder to discern?

Research Update PDF
Abstracts of the latest working papers produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

  • Last update: August 28, 2019

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