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For release: 10 a.m., February 10, 2012
Contact: Katherine Dibling, Public Affairs Specialist, (215) 574-4119
The 45 participants in the first quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters see a stronger labor market, but their outlook for growth is mostly unchanged from that of three months ago.
Assistant Director and Manager of the Real-Time Data Research Center, Tom Stark:
“The forecasters are more optimistic about conditions in the labor market over the next four years than they were three months ago. Yet, their expectations for real GDP growth over the next two years are nearly unchanged. The forecasters also see lower risks of a downturn over the next four quarters. For the current quarter, the forecasters peg the odds of a downturn at 9.5 percent, down from 16.6 percent previously.”
The Survey of Professional Forecasters is a quarterly survey of economic forecasters from across the country. Participants are asked to provide their projections for a broad range of macroeconomic variables, including real GDP, nonfarm payroll employment, and inflation indicators such as CPI and PCE. It is the oldest survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990. The second quarter 2012 Survey of Professional Forecasters will be released at 10 a.m., Friday, May 11, 2012. See the schedule of releases.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia helps formulate and implement monetary policy, supervises banks and bank and savings and loan holding companies, and provides financial services to depository institutions and the federal government. It is one of the 12 regional Reserve Banks that, together with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank serves eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.