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Forecasters See Stronger Recovery

For release: 10 a.m., May 14, 2010
Contact: Marilyn Wimp, E-mail manager of media relations, (215) 574-4197

Philadelphia, Pa. — The 44 participants in the second-quarter 2010 Survey of Professional Forecasters, released today, indicated that the economic outlook over the next few quarters is stronger now than it was just three months ago.

The forecasters predict that real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 3.3 percent over each of the next two quarters, up from the previous estimate of 2.7 percent. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect more robust real GDP growth in 2010 and 2011, but slower real GDP growth in 2012 and 2013. The forecasters see real GDP growing 3.3 percent in 2010, up from their prediction of 3.0 percent in the last survey. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow 3.1 percent in 2011, 3.2 percent in 2012, and 2.9 percent in 2013.

Forecasters also see stronger conditions in the labor market. Unemployment is now projected to be an annual average of 9.6 percent in 2010, before falling to 8.9 percent in 2011, 8.0 percent in 2012, and 7.1 percent in 2013.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990.

To arrange an interview with an analyst, contact Marilyn Wimp, E-mail the Bank's manager of media relations, at (215) 574-4197. The next survey will be released at 10 a.m., August 13, 2010, and will be made available on our website.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia helps formulate and implement monetary policy, supervises banks and bank holding companies, and provides financial services to depository institutions and the federal government. It is one of the 12 regional Reserve Banks that, together with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank serves eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.

Media Contacts

Daneil Mazone E-mail
Manager, Media Relations
(215) 574-7163
(267) 535-1808 (cell)

Joey Lee E-mail
Media Relations Representative
(215) 574-3840
(215) 983-6820 (cell)