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Forecasters See Lower Growth, Higher Unemployment

For release: 10 a.m., May 15, 2009
Contact: Katherine Dibling, E-mail senior media representative, (215) 574-4119

Philadelphia, Pa. - The 51 participants in the second-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters, which was released today, expect lower growth and higher unemployment over the next two years than they did three months ago. They also have increased their expectations for job losses. In the special questions, the forecasters were asked to provide two more years of annual forecasts for the civilian unemployment rate and real GDP.

The forecasters see the economy contracting at a rate of 2.8 percent (annual-average over annual average) in the current year. In 2010, they expect the economy to expand 2.0 percent. Unemployment is expected to average 9.1 percent this year and rise to 9.6 percent in 2010. For more details, listen to an interview with our analyst.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990.

To arrange an interview with an analyst, contact Katherine Q. Dibling, the Bank's senior media representative, at (215) 574-4119. The next survey will be released at 10 a.m., Friday, August 14, 2009, and will be made available on our website.

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