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Tuesday, May 21, 2013

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Home > Research & Data > Research Contacts > Tom Stark

Contact for:

• Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index
• Greenbook Data Sets
• Livingston Survey
• Real-Time Data Set
• Survey of Professional Forecasters

Current Working Papers

• "Do Phillips Curves Conditionally Help to Forecast Inflation?," with Michael Dotsey and Shigeru Fujita, Working Paper 11-40, September 2011.
• "Mismeasured Personal Saving and the Permanent Income Hypothesis," with Leonard Nakamura, Working Paper 07-8, February 2007.
• “Benchmark Revisions and the U.S. Personal Saving Rate,” with Leonard Nakamura, Working Paper 05-6, April 2005.
• "Forecasting Coin Demand," with Dean Croushore, Working Paper 02-15/R, March 2003.
• "Is Macroeconomic Research Robust to Alternative Data Sets?," with Dean Croushore, Working Paper 02-3, March 2002.
• "Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists," with Dean Croushore, Working Paper 01-10, July 2001.
• "Does Current-Quarter Information Improve Quarterly Forecasts for the U.S. Economy?," Working Paper 00-2, January 2000.
• "A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists: Does the Data Vintage Matter?," with Dean Croushore, Working Paper 99-21, December 1999.
• "Does Data Vintage Matter for Forecasting?," with Dean Croushore, Working Paper 99-15, October 1999.
• "A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists," with Dean Croushore, Working Paper 99-4, June 1999.
• "A Bayesian Vector Error Corrections Model of the U.S. Economy," Working Paper 98-12, June 1998.
• "Macroeconomic Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters in the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Paper 97-10, August 1997.
• "Evaluating McCallum's Rule When Monetary Policy Matters," with Dean Croushore, Working Paper 96-3.

Publications in Refereed Journals

• "Self-Fulfilling Expectations and the Inflation of the 1970s: Evidence From the Livingston Survey," with Sylvain Leduc and Keith Sill, Journal of Monetary Economics 54 (2007), pp. 433-459.
• "A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists: Does the Data Vintage Matter?" with Dean Croushore, Review of Economics and Statistics 85(2003), pp. 605-617.
• "Reply to the Comments on 'Forecasting With a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists'," with Dean Croushore, Journal of Macroeconomics 24(2002), 563-567.
• "Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists," with Dean Croushore, 24(2002), pp. 507-531.
• "A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists," with Dean Croushore, Journal of Econometrics 105(2001), pp. 111-130.
• " Evaluating McCallum's Rule When Monetary Policy Matters," with Dean Croushore, Journal of Macroeconomics 20(1998), pp. 451-485.
• "The Long-Run Variance of Output and Inflation Under Alternative Monetary Policy Rules," with Robert H. Defina and Herbert E. Taylor, Journal of Macroeconomics 18(1996), pp. 235-251.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review Articles

• “The Relationship Between Capacity Utilization and Inflation,” with Mike Dotsey, Second Quarter 2005.
• “A Summary of the Conference on Real-Time Data Analysis,” First Quarter 2002.
• “A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Data Bank: A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists,” with Dean Croushore, September/October 2000.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Research Rap Special Reports

• “Revisions to Nonfarm Payroll Employment: 1964 to 2011,” December 2011 (134 KB, 11 pages)
• “Real GDP in Annual Revisions to the U.S. National Accounts: 1966-2011,” August 2011 (76 KB, 11 pages)
• “Realistic Evaluation of Real-Time Forecasts in the Survey of Professional Forecasters,” May 2010 (114 KB, 20 pages)

• Last update: December 19, 2011