Keith Sill

Vice President and Director, Real-Time Data Research Center

Phone: (215) 574-3815
Fax: (215) 574-4303
Send an e-mail to Keith Sill
Curriculum vitae

Publications in Refereed Journals

"Expectations and Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis Using Survey Data," with Sylvain Leduc, Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming. (Pre-publication version. )
"The Long and Large Decline in State Employment Growth Volatility," with Gerald Carlino and Robert DeFina, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, forthcoming. (Pre-publication version. )
"DSGE Model-Based Forecasting of Non-Modelled Variables," with Frank Schorfheide and Maxym Kryshko, International Journal of Forecasting 26 (2) (April 2010). Pre-publication NBER Working Paper No. 14872.
"Monetary Policy, Oil Shocks, and TFP: Accounting for the Decline in U.S. Volatility," with Sylvain Leduc, Review of Economic Dynamics 10 (4) (October 2007).
"Self-Fulfilling Expectations and the Inflation of the 1970s: Evidence from the Livingston Survey," with Sylvain Leduc and Tom Stark, Journal of Monetary Economics, 54 (2) (March 2007) .
"A Quantitative Analysis of Oil-Price Shocks, Systematic Monetary Policy, and Economic Downturns," with Sylvain Leduc, Journal of Monetary Economics 51 (2004).
"Sectoral Shocks and Metropolitan Employment Growth," with Gerald Carlino and Robert H. DeFina, Journal of Urban Economics 50 (2001).
"Regional Income Fluctuations: Common Trends and Common Cycles," with Gerald Carlino, Review of Economics and Statistics 83 (3) (August 2001).
"An Empirical Investigation of Money Demand: Evidence from a Cash-In-Advance Model," Canadian Journal of Economics 31 (1998), pp. 125-47.
"Macroeconomic Risk and the Determination of Expected Returns on Stocks," Managerial Finance 21:7 (1995), pp. 43-56.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review Articles

“Measuring Economic Uncertainty Using the Survey of Professional Forecasters,” Fourth Quarter 2012.
“Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve,” First Quarter 2011.
"News About the Future and Economic Fluctuations," Fourth Quarter 2009.
"The Evolution of the World Income Distribution," Second Quarter 2008.
"The Macroeconomics of Oil Shocks," First Quarter 2007.
"Do Budget Deficits Cause Inflation?," Third Quarter 2005.
"Widening the Wage Gap: The Skill Premium and Technology," Fourth Quarter 2002.
"The Gains from International Risk-Sharing," Third Quarter 2001.
"Understanding Asset Values: Stock Prices, Exchange Rates, and the 'Peso Problem'," September/October 2000.
"Forecasts, Indicators, and Monetary Policy," May/June 1999.
"Restructuring During Recessions: The Silver Lining in the Cloud?," May/June 1998.
"The Economic Benefits and Risks of Derivative Securities," January/February 1997.
"The Cyclical Volatility of Interest Rates," January/February 1996.
"Managing the Public Debt," July/August 1994.
"Predicting Stock-Market Volatility," January/February 1993.

Unpublished Research Papers/Work in Progress

"Macroeconomic Volatility and the Equity Premium," Working Paper 06-1, December 2005.
"Precautionary Savings with Variable Effort," with Satyajit Chatterjee
"Postwar Period Changes in Employment Volatility: New Evidence from State/Industry Panel Data," with Gerald Carlino and Robert DeFina, Working Paper 03-18, August 2003.
"Solving and Simulating a Simple Open-Economy Model with Markov-Switching Driving Processes and Rational Learning," with Jeff Wrase, Working Paper 99-14, October 1999.
"Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy Regimes in Canada and the U.S.," with Jeff Wrase, Working Paper 99-13, October 1999.
"Exchange Rates, Monetary Policy Regimes, and Beliefs," with Jeff Wrase, Working Paper 99-6.
"Regional Employment Dynamics," Working Paper 97-28, December 1997.

Last update: November 20, 2012