Pablo Guerron

Economic Advisor and Economist

Capital Accumulation and Sovereign Default (with Grey Gordon)
Cash and Credit Goods in Segmented Markets (with Mike Dotsey)
One-Sided Risk in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models (with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Juan Rubio-Ramírez)
Long-Run Cost of Great Depressions (and Recessions)

"Frequentist Inference in Weakly Identified DSGE Models," (with Atsushi Inoue and Lutz Kilian) forthcoming, Quantitative Economics (2012).
"Common and Idiosyncratic Disturbances in Developed Small Open Economies," forthcoming, Journal of International Economics (2012).
"Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," (joint with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Juan Rubio-Ramírez, and Martin Uribe), American Economic Review, 101 (2011), pp. 2530-2561.
"The Implications of Inflation in an Estimated New-Keynesian Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 35 (2011), pp: 947-962.
"Economic Development and Heterogeneity in the Great Moderation among the States," B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 11 (2011), article 21.
"Economic Development and Volatility among the States" (joint with Asli Leblecioglu and Thomas Grennes). Economics Bulletin (2010), pp. 1963-1976.
"What You Match Does Matter: The Effects of Data on DSGE Estimation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25 (2010), pp: 774-804.
"Money Demand Heterogeneity and the Great Moderation," Journal of Monetary Economics 56(2009), pp. 255-266.
"Refinements on Macroeconomic Modeling: The Role of Non-Separability and Heterogeneous Labor Supply," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 32 (2008), pp: 3613-3630.

"Reading the Recent Monetary History of the U.S., 1959-2007" (joint with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Juan Rubio-Ramírez) Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 92 (2010), pp. 311-338.
"The New Macroeconometrics: A Bayesian Approach" (joint with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Juan Rubio-Ramírez) in A. O'Hagan and M. West, eds., Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis (2010), Oxford University Press .
Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models (with James Nason) in M. Thornton and N. Hashimzade eds. Handbook of Empirical Methods in Macroeconomics, forthcoming, Edward Elgar Publishing, Ltd. (2012).

"Interest Rates and Prices in an Inventory Model of Money with Credit," with Michael Dotsey, Working Paper 13-5, December 2012.
“Nonlinear Adventures at the Zero Lower Bound,” with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Grey Gordon, and Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, Working Paper 12-10, May 2012.
"Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models," with James M. Nason, Working Paper 12-4, February 2012.
"Common and Idiosyncratic Disturbances in Developed Small Open Economies," Working Paper 12-3, January 2012.
"Supply-Side Policies and the Zero Lower Bound," with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, Working Paper 11-47, October 2011.
"Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Keith Kuester, and Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez , Working Paper 11-32/R, January 2012.
"Fortune or Virtue: Time-Variant Volatilities Versus Parameter Drifting," with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, Working Paper 10-14, April 2010.
"Common Factors in Small Open Economies: Inference and Consequences," Working Paper 10-4, January 2010, superseded by Working Paper 12-3.
"Do Uncertainty and Technology Drive Exchange Rates?," Working Paper 09-20, September 2009.
"Frequentist Inference in Weakly Identified DSGE Models," (joint with Atsushi Inoue and Lutz Kilian ), Working Paper 09-13, July 2009