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Senior Economic Advisor & Economist
Phone: (215) 574-3861
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- 2003-Associate Editor, Macroeconomic Dynamics
Current Working Papers
- "Do Supply Restrictions Raise the Value of Urban Land? The (Neglected) Role of Production Externalities," with Burcu Eyigungor, Working Paper 13-37, September 2013. (Supersedes Working Paper 12-25.)
- "Debt Dilution and Seniority in a Model of Defaultable Sovereign Debt," with Burcu Eyigungor, Working Paper 13-30, July 2013. (Supersedes Working Paper 12-14.)
- "Insuring Student Loans Against the Financial Risk of Failing to Complete College," with Felicia Ionescu, Working Paper 12-15, June 2012.
- "Dealing with Consumer Default: Bankruptcy vs. Garnishment," with Grey Gordon, Working Paper 11-35, June 2011.
- "Maturity, Indebtedness, and Default Risk," with Burcu Eyigungor, Working Paper 11-33, August 2011.
- "A Quantitative Analysis of the US Housing and Mortgage Markets and the Foreclosure Crisis," with Burcu Eyigungor, Working Paper 11-26, July 2011.
- "Insuring Student Loans Against the Risk of College Failure," with Felicia Ionescu, Working Paper 10-31,
- "Maturity, Indebtedness, and Default Risk," with Burcu Eyigungor, Working Paper 10-12, April 2010.
- "Insuring College Failure Risk," with Felicia Ionescu, Working Paper 10-1, November 2009, Superseded by Working Paper 10-31.
- "Foreclosures and House Price Dynamics: A Quantitative Analysis of the Mortgage Crisis and the Foreclosure Prevention Policy," with Burcu Eyigungor, Working Paper 09-22, September 2009.
- "Maturity, Indebtedness, and Default Risk," with Burcu Eyigungor, Working Paper 09-2, February 2009.
- "Spinoffs and the Market for Ideas," with Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, Working Paper 08-26, October 2008.
- "A Quantitative Theory of Unsecured Consumer Credit with Risk of Default," Working Paper 07-16, June 2007.
- "Spin-Offs and the Market for Ideas," Working Paper 07-15, June 2007.
- "A Finite-Life Private-Information Theory of Unsecured Consumer Debt," Working Paper 07-14, May 2007.
- "A Quantitative Assessment of the Role of Agglomeration Economies in the Spatial Concentration of U.S. Employment," Working Paper 06-20, November 2006.
- "On the Aggregate Welfare Cost of Great Depression Unemployment," with Dean Corbae, Working Paper 06-18, September 2006.
- "Urban Density and the Rate of Invention" with Gerald Carlino and Robert Hunt, Working Paper 06-14, August 2006.
- "Monetary and Financial Forces in the Great Depression," with Dean Corbae, Working Paper 06-12, June 2006.
- "A Quantitative Theory of Unsecured Consumer Credit with Risk of Default," with Dean Corbae, Makoto Nakajima, and Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, Working Paper 05-18, August 2005.
Publications in Refereed Journals
- "A Finite-Life, Private-Information Theory of Unsecured Debt," with D. Corbae and J-V Rios-Rull, Journal of Economic Theory (forthcoming).
- "A Quantitative Theory of Unsecured Consumer Loans with a Risk of Default," with D.Corbae, M. Nakajima and J-V. Rios-Rull, Working Paper No. 05-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Econometrica, 75(6), 2007, pp. 1525-1589.
- "Aggregate Welfare Costs of Great Depression Unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics 54(6), 2007, pp. 1529-44.
- "Urban Density and the Rate of Invention," with G. Carlino and R. Hunt, Journal of Urban Economics 61(3), 2006, pp. 389-415.
- "Employment Deconcentration: A New Perspective on America's Postwar Urban Evolution," with Gerald Carlino, Journal of Regional Science 42 (2002), pp. 455-475.
- "Aggregate Metropolitan Employment Growth and Deconcentration of Metropolitan Employment," with Gerald Carlino, Journal of Monetary Economics 48 (2001).
- "Minimum Consumption Requirements: Theoretical and Quantitative Implications for Growth and Distribution," with B. Ravikumar, Macroeconomic Dynamics 3 (1999), pp. 482-505.
- "Money and Finance with Costly Commitment," with Dean Corbae, Journal of Monetary Economics 37 (1996), pp. 225-48.
- "Transitional Dynamics and the Distribution of Wealth in a Neoclassical Growth Model," Journal of Public Economics 54 (1994), pp. 97-119.
- "Strategic Complementarity in Business Formation: Aggregate Fluctuations and Sunspot Equilibria," with B. Ravikumar and Russell Cooper, Review of Economic Studies 60 (1993), pp. 795-811.
- "Endogenous Market Participation and the General Equilibrium Value of Money," with Dean Corbae, Journal of Political Economy 100 (1992), pp. 615-46.
- "A Neoclassical Model of Seasonal Fluctuations," with B. Ravikumar, Journal of Monetary Economics 29 (1992), pp. 59-86.
Publications: Invited Articles and Comments
- "Monetary and Financial Forces in the Great Depression," with Dean Corbae. Prepared for the New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics (available as Working Paper No. 06-12).
- Comment on "Inflation, Financial Markets, and Capital Formation" by S. Choi, B.D. Smith, and J.H. Boyd, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 78 (3), (1996), pp. 38-39.
- "Valuation Equilibria with Transactions Cost," with D. Corbae, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings," May 1995, pp. 287-290.
- Comment on "Price and Output Stability Under Alternative Monetary Policy Rules" (by J.E. Gagnon and R.W. Tryon), Operating Procedures and the Conduct of Monetary Policy, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. [Proceedings] No.1 pt.2 (1993).
- "Multiplicity of Equilibria and Fluctuations in Dynamic Imperfectly Competitive Economies," with R. Cooper, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, (May 1989), pp. 353-57.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review Articles
- “Debt Overhang: Why Recovery from a Financial Crisis Can Be Slow,” Second Quarter 2013.
- “A Theory of Asset Price Booms and Busts and the Uncertain Return to Innovation,” Fourth Quarter 2011.
- "De-Leveraging and the Financial Accelerator: How Wall Street Can Shock Main Street," Second Quarter 2010.
- "The Peopling of Macroeconomics: Microeconomics of Aggregate Consumer Expenditures," First Quarter 2009.
- "The Economic Logic of a Fresh Start," First Quarter 2008.
- "Ores and Scores: Two Examples of How Competition Engendered Productivity Miracles," First Quarter 2005.
- "Agglomeration Economies: The Spark that Ignites a City?," Fourth Quarter 2003.
- "The Taylor Curve and the Unemployment-Inflation Tradeoff," Third Quarter 2002.
- "Why Does Countercyclical Monetary Policy Matter?" Second Quarter 2001.
- "From Cycles to Shocks: Progress in Business-Cycle Theory," March/April 2000.
- "Real Business Cycles: Legacy of Countercyclical Policies?" January/February 1999.
- "Homeownership, Taxes, and the Allocation of Residential Real Estate Risks," September/October 1996.
- "Productivity Growth and the American Business Cycle," September/October 1995.
- "Making More Out of Less: The Recipe for Long Run Growth," May/June 1994.
- "Leaning Against the Seasonal Wind: The Case for Seasonal Smoothing of Interest Rates," March/April 1993.
Other Philadelphia Fed Publications
- "The Long-Run Effects of the Bankruptcy Reform Bill," Research Rap, October 2006.
Unpublished Research Papers/ Work-in-Progress
- "Competitive Theories for Economies with General Transactions Technology," with Dean Corbae, Working Paper 99-18, November 1999.
- "A Welfare Comparison of Pre-and Post-WWII Business Cycles," with Dean Corbae, Working Paper 99-2, March 1999.
- "On the Optimality of Eliminating Seasonality in Nominal Interest Rates," Working Paper 97-2, April 1997.
- "Entry and Exit, Product Variety and the Business Cycle," with Russell Cooper, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 4562, December 1993.
- Aggregate Implications of Microeconomic Consumer Behavior
- Business Cycle Theory
- Economic Geography