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Home > Newsroom > Press Releases > 2012 Releases > Bank Releases March's Leading Indexes

Bank Releases March’s Leading Indexes

April 27, 2012

For immediate release
Contact: Katherine Dibling, Public Affairs Specialist, (215) 574-4119

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia today released the leading indexes for the 50 states for March 2012. The leading indexes are a six-month forecast of the state coincident indexes, which reflect current economic activity in each state.

About March’s Release

• Forty-eight state coincident indexes are projected to grow over the next six months, while two are projected to decrease (Louisiana and Rhode Island).

Third District Leading Indexes

• Pennsylvania: The leading index was 2.2 in March. The state experienced a positive growth rate in its coincident index, as initial unemployment claims decreased — reflecting positive current economic activity. However, the index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing survey fell, and the issuance of building permits in the state decreased. Overall, the state's leading index for March suggests expansion in the state's economy through the third quarter of 2012.
• New Jersey: The leading index was 1.5 in March. The state's coincident index rose, and initial unemployment claims decreased. However, the issuance of building permits in the state decreased, and the index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing survey fell. Overall, the state's leading index for March suggests expansion in the state's economy through the third quarter of 2012.
• Delaware: The leading index was 1.1 in March. The state experienced a positive growth rate in its coincident index and an increase in the issuance of building permits. Additionally, initial unemployment claims decreased. However, the index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing survey decreased. The state's leading index for March suggests expansion in the state's economy through the third quarter of 2012.

About the Leading Indexes

• The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state's coincident index.
• The models include the state's related coincident index and variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the three-month Treasury bill.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia helps formulate and implement monetary policy, supervises banks and bank and savings and loan holding companies, and provides financial services to depository institutions and the federal government. It is one of the 12 regional Reserve Banks that, together with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank serves eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.