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Home > Newsroom > Press Releases > 2011 Releases > Bank Releases November's Leading Indexes

Bank Releases November’s Leading Indexes

December 29, 2011

For immediate release
Contact: Marilyn Wimp, Manager of Media Relations, (215) 574-4197

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia today released the leading indexes for the 50 states for November 2011. The leading indexes are a six-month forecast of the state coincident indexes, which reflect current economic activity in each state.

About November’s Release

• Forty-six state coincident indexes are projected to grow over the next six months, while four (Alaska, Louisiana, Rhode Island, and Wyoming) are projected to decrease.

Third District Leading Indexes

• Pennsylvania: The leading index for Pennsylvania was 2.2 in November. The state experienced an increase in building permits and a positive growth rate in its coincident index, which reflects positive current economic activity. On the other hand, initial unemployment claims increased, and the index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey fell. Overall, Pennsylvania’s leading index for November suggests expansion in the state’s economy into the second quarter of 2012.
• New Jersey: The leading index for New Jersey was 1.3 in November. Both building permits and the state’s coincident index rose. However, initial unemployment claims increased, and the index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey decreased. New Jersey’s leading index for November suggests expansion in the state’s economy into the second quarter of 2012.
• Delaware: The leading index for Delaware was 1.9 in November. The state experienced a positive growth rate in its coincident index. On the other hand, initial unemployment claims increased, and both building permits and the index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey decreased. Overall, Delaware’s leading index for November suggests expansion in the state’s economy into the second quarter of 2012.

About the Leading Indexes

• The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index.
• The models include the state’s related coincident index and variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the three-month Treasury bill.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia helps formulate and implement monetary policy, supervises banks and bank and savings and loan holding companies, and provides financial services to depository institutions and the federal government. It is one of the 12 regional Reserve Banks that, together with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank serves eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.