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Home > Newsroom > Press Releases > 2011 Releases > Bank Releases June's Leading Indexes

Bank Releases June’s Leading Indexes

August 2, 2011

For immediate release
Contact: Katherine Dibling, Senior Media Representative, (215) 574-4119

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia today released the leading indexes for the 50 states for June 2011. The leading indexes are a six-month forecast of the state coincident indexes, which reflect current economic activity in each state.

About June’s Release

• Thirty-three state coincident indexes are projected to grow over the next six months, while 17 are projected to decrease.

Third District Leading Indexes

• Pennsylvania: The leading index was 0.6 in June. A decrease in initial unemployment claims, increases in building permits and the index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey, and a positive growth rate in the state’s coincident index kept the leading index positive. The state's leading index for June suggests expansion in the state's economy through the fourth quarter of 2011.
• New Jersey: The leading index was 0.7 in June. The index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey rose, and the state experienced an increase in its coincident index and building permits. However, initial unemployment claims rose. Overall, the state's leading index for June suggests expansion in the state’s economy through the fourth quarter of 2011.
• Delaware: The leading index was 0.3 in June. Increases in the state’s coincident index, building permits, and the index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey kept the leading index positive. Additionally, initial unemployment claims fell. The state's leading index for June suggests expansion in the state’s economy through the fourth quarter of 2011.

About the Leading Indexes

• The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index.
• The models include the state’s related coincident index and variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the three-month Treasury bill.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia helps formulate and implement monetary policy, supervises banks and bank and savings and loan holding companies, and provides financial services to depository institutions and the federal government. It is one of the 12 regional Reserve Banks that, together with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank serves eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.