• Research & Data
• Education
• Consumer Credit & Payments
• Bank Resources
• Community Development

• Newsroom
• Careers
• Publications

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

[ – ] Text Size [ + ]  |  Print Page

Home > Newsroom > Press Releases > 2011 Releases > Bank Releases May's Leading Indexes

Bank Releases May’s Leading Indexes

June 28, 2011

For immediate release
Contact: Katherine Dibling, Senior Media Representative, (215) 574-4119

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia today released the leading indexes for the 50 states for May 2011. The leading indexes are a six-month forecast of the state coincident indexes.

About May’s Release

• Forty state coincident indexes are projected to grow over the next six months, while 10 are projected to decrease.

Third District Leading Indexes

• Pennsylvania: The leading index was 2.0 in May. A positive growth rate in the state's coincident index kept the leading index positive. However, initial unemployment claims rose, and building permits and the index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing survey fell. Overall, the state's leading index suggests expansion in the state's economy into the fourth quarter of 2011.
• New Jersey: The leading index was -0.3 in May. The index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing survey fell. On the other hand, the coincident index and building permits increased, and initial unemployment claims fell slightly. The state's leading index suggests some contraction in the state's economy into the fourth quarter of 2011.
• Delaware: The leading index was 2.1 in May. An increase in the state's coincident index kept the leading index positive. On the other hand, building permits and the index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing survey fell, and initial unemployment claims rose. The state's leading index suggests expansion in the state's economy into the fourth quarter of 2011.

About the Leading Indexes

• The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index.
• The models include the state’s related coincident index and variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the three-month Treasury bill.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia helps formulate and implement monetary policy, supervises banks and bank holding companies, and provides financial services to depository institutions and the federal government. It is one of the 12 regional Reserve Banks that, together with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank serves eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.