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Home > Newsroom > Press Releases > 2011 Releases > Bank Releases March’s Leading Indexes

Bank Releases March’s Leading Indexes

April 28, 2011

For immediate release
Contact: Katherine Dibling, Senior Media Representative, (215) 574-4119

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia today released the leading indexes for the 50 states for March 2011. The leading indexes are a six-month forecast of the state coincident indexes.

About March’s Release

• All 50 state coincident indexes are projected to grow over the next six months. Read the March press release and the report on the coincident indexes.
• For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar leading index for our U.S. coincident index, which is projected to grow 2.0 percent over the next six months.

Third District Leading Indexes

• Pennsylvania: The leading index was 3.2 in March. An increase in both building permits and delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing survey, a decrease in initial unemployment claims, and a positive growth rate in the state's coincident index kept the leading index positive. The leading index for March suggests expansion in the state's economy through the third quarter of 2011.
• New Jersey: The leading index was 0.3 in March. The state's coincident index and the index of delivery times from the ISM manufacturing survey increased, while initial unemployment claims fell. On the other hand, building permits decreased. Overall, New Jersey's leading index for March suggests some expansion in the state's economy through the third quarter of 2011.
• Delaware: The leading index was 2.3 in March. An increase in both the state's coincident index and the index of delivery times from the ISM manufacturing survey kept the leading index positive. However, initial unemployment claims rose, and building permits fell. The leading index for March suggests expansion in the state's economy through the third quarter of 2011.

About the Leading Indexes

• The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index.
• The models include the state’s related coincident index and variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the three-month Treasury bill.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia helps formulate and implement monetary policy, supervises banks and bank holding companies, and provides financial services to depository institutions and the federal government. It is one of the 12 regional Reserve Banks that, together with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank serves eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.