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Home > Newsroom > Press Releases > 2011 Releases > Bank Releases January’s Leading Indexes

Bank Releases January’s Leading Indexes

March 22, 2011

For immediate release
Contact: Katherine Dibling, Senior Media Representative, (215) 574-4119

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia today released the leading indexes for the 50 states for January 2011. The leading indexes are a six-month forecast of the state coincident indexes.

About January’s Release

• Forty-eight state coincident indexes are projected to grow over the next six months, while two (Kansas and Montana) are projected to decrease.
• For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar leading index for our U.S. coincident index, which is projected to grow 1.9 percent over the next six months.

Third District Leading Indexes

• Pennsylvania: The leading index was 2.7 in January. Along with a rise in building permits and the index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing survey, a positive growth rate in the state's coincident index kept the leading index positive. On the other hand, initial unemployment claims rose. The state's leading index for January suggests expansion in the economy into the third quarter of 2011.
• New Jersey: The leading index was 0.3 in January. The state's coincident index was relatively flat. Building permits decreased, and initial unemployment claims rose. Overall, New Jersey's leading index for January suggests expansion in the economy into the third quarter of 2011.
• Delaware: The leading index was 0.7 in January. The state's coincident index was relatively flat. An increase in building permits and the index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing survey kept the leading index positive. On the other hand, initial unemployment claims rose somewhat. The leading index for January suggests expansion in the economy into the third quarter of 2011.

About the Leading Indexes

• The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index.
• The models include the state’s related coincident index and variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the three-month Treasury bill.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia helps formulate and implement monetary policy, supervises banks and bank holding companies, and provides financial services to depository institutions and the federal government. It is one of the 12 regional Reserve Banks that, together with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank serves eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.