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Home > Newsroom > Press Releases > 2011 Releases > Bank Releases December’s Leading Indexes

Bank Releases December’s Leading Indexes

February 1, 2011

For immediate release
Contact: Katherine Dibling, senior media representative, (215) 574-4119

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia today released the leading indexes for the 50 states for December 2010. The leading indexes are a six-month forecast of the state coincident indexes.

About December’s Release

• Thirty-seven state coincident indexes are projected to grow over the next six months, while 13 are projected to decrease.
• For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar leading index for our U.S. coincident index, which is projected to grow 1.7 percent over the next six months.

Third District Leading Indexes

• Pennsylvania: The leading index was 2.1 in December. A decline in initial unemployment claims and a positive growth rate in the state’s coincident index — which reflects positive current economic activity — kept the leading index positive. However, building permits and the index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey decreased. The leading index for December suggests expansion in the state’s economy through the second quarter of 2011.
• New Jersey: The leading index was 0.6 in December. The state experienced a positive growth rate in its coincident index and an increase in building permits. However, initial unemployment claims rose, while the index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey decreased. The leading index for December suggests expansion in the state’s economy through the second quarter of 2011.
• Delaware: The leading index was –0.8 in December. A negative growth rate in the state’s coincident index and a decrease in the index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey kept the leading index negative. On the other hand, building permits rose, and initial unemployment claims fell. The leading index for December suggests contraction in the state’s economy through the second quarter of 2011.

About the Leading Indexes

• The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index.
• The models include the state’s related coincident index and variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the three-month Treasury bill.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia helps formulate and implement monetary policy, supervises banks and bank holding companies, and provides financial services to depository institutions and the federal government. It is one of the 12 regional Reserve Banks that, together with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank serves eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.