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Home > Newsroom > Press Releases > 2010 Releases > Bank Releases August's Leading Indexes

Bank Releases August's Leading Indexes

October 1, 2010

For immediate release
Contact: Katherine Dibling, senior media representative, (215) 574-4119

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia today released the leading indexes for the 50 states for August 2010. The leading indexes are a six-month forecast of the state coincident indexes.

About August’s Release

• Twenty-eight state coincident indexes are projected to grow over the next six months, while 22 are projected to decrease.
• For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar leading index for our U.S. coincident index, which is projected to grow 0.6 percent over the next six months.
• The Pennsylvania and Delaware leading indexes for August were 0.9 and 2.0, respectively. The leading index for New Jersey was 1.5 in August.

About the Leading Indexes

• The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index.
• The models include the state’s related coincident index and variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the three-month Treasury bill.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia helps formulate and implement monetary policy, supervises banks and bank holding companies, and provides financial services to depository institutions and the federal government. It is one of the 12 regional Reserve Banks that, together with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank serves eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.